news/editorial

23 November 2014 News/Editorial

So just how bad has 2014 been?

You may have read a number of articles/letters saying it is wrong to be too gloomy, and heard respected pundits proffer things like “it is a wild resource and there are always going to be natural variations, this is just a big one on the downside”....and then others…. “it really wasn’t that bad”.

As we approach the end of Tweed’s 2014 and without having the correct figures anything like to hand (the Tweed Commissioners will publish those towards the end of February), what preliminary conclusions can be drawn?

First let us dispel some myths/establish some facts:

1. Fishing conditions have not caused it; yes it was a dry summer and early autumn, and a pretty wet November, but there have been far drier summers and wetter Novembers, yet the catches far exceeded this year’s.

2. There are no massive Russian (or any other) trawlers out there scooping up all our fish.

3. There has been no sudden seismic increase in predation from seals, dolphins, cormorants, goosanders etc as compared to previous years...they always have eaten our fish, both juvenile and adult, and always will.

4. Neither our own nets, nor anyone else’s, have caused it; indeed our own netting is now at an all time low, and those that still do net, did very badly in 2014.

5. Stocking would have made no difference to Tweed; many UK salmon rivers still do some stocking, and they faired no better, most far worse, than us in 2014. Even such Icelandic rivers as the East Ranga, which are wholly reliant on stocked fish in the equivalent of a ranching operation, have seen their catches reduced by half or more.

To explain it we need to find something new, something that has afflicted this year, but not others.

You can split Tweed’s past, recent rod catches into 3:

Pre 1987 (after UDN had worn off and before the first big net buy-out) 7,500 pa average

1987 to 2002 (more net buyouts and habitat/access improvements) 10,000 pa average

2003 to 2013 (after the North East Drift net buyout) 14,000 pa average

In other words, it has been an ever upwards trend for over 30 years, with the only slight blip, up to and including 2013, being 2009 with just over 10,000 (quickly forgotten when the next year (2010) produced 23,219).

Now, suddenly and without warning, we have plunged back to pre 1987 levels…. and most of those who are brave enough to venture a guess, for such it is, would put the likely 2014 catch at no higher than 7,500.

Exactly half of last year…..which is not good.

Some blame 2009, because it was poor and is the parent year for our 2014 salmon……..but not our 2014 grilse, which should come from the massive run of 2010.

And, in fact, 2014 in terms of spring salmon has been a lot better than its parent year of 2009.

The Tweed 2009 spring rod catch was 1,147 salmon, the worst for many years before that, whereas 5 years later in 2014 it was 1,737, a very surprising increase of over 51%, if still over 500 down on the 5 year spring average.

Not much sign there of 2009 being the sole cause of the decline in 2014, as is so often claimed.

So if the Spring did not cause more than a small amount of the dramatic decline in 2014 catches, it has to be the autumn where things have gone seriously downhill.

But why?

Curiously, looking at, and comparing, the autumns of 2009 and 2014 from Lees catch records, and taking anything 7lbs and under to be a grilse and anything 8lbs and over to be a salmon, the percentage mix is pretty much identical at around 50% salmon and 50% grilse in both years, just that in 2014 the numbers (for September, October and November) were very much smaller…..2009 catch 423, versus 2014 (with a week to go) catch of 230, almost half as many.

So, it would seem, there has been a failure in 2014 in the numbers of both salmon and grilse as compared to 2009, itself not a good year.

But the grilse of 2014 come from the autumn run of 2010, so what were the figures for 2010, both in terms of %ages of salmon and grilse respectively, and in terms of pure numbers?

Again from Lees records, for autumn 2010, the %ages were 55% grilse (7lbs and under) and 45% salmon (8lbs and over), all in a total autumn (September to November inclusive) catch of

768.

Now, of course, much depends on identifying, for this purpose only, that anything 7lbs and under is a grilse (for there will be grilse over 7lbs, and salmon of 7lbs and under)....but the conclusion would seem to be, given all sorts of provisos about the sample sizes, that it is neither specifically the number of salmon nor grilse which have failed in 2014, but both.

Why that should be, especially the lack of grilse from the massive run of 2010, is hard to explain...and we may never fully understand why it has happened.

For all of us here on the Tweed, and for almost all other salmon rivers in the North Atlantic regardless of country, there will be much crossing of fingers……... that 2015 produces something very much better.

It will be a nervous wait, until we see what nature’s bounty provides.