news/editorial

23 October 2016 News/Editorial

“Don’t panic” can always be attacked as “complacency”.

There will be some, maybe even many, who will blame those in charge for whatever it is that is happening now to our Tweed salmon.

The River Tweed Commission, the Tweed Foundation, and of course “the owners”, always “the owners”. It must be somebody’s fault, “blame” makes everyone, especially those doing the blaming, feel much better.

Even when it makes no logical sense.

In order to make blame stick, you have to say what it is you would have done differently, or would not have done, which those in charge have done.

What makes life difficult for the blamers is that Tweed management has remained unchanged since 2010, when the rod catch exceeded 23,000 salmon and grilse, by far the most salmon ever caught by rod and line on any North Atlantic river….ever.

Indeed, since then, netting has been further reduced, bringing the total now spent by those beastly “owners” on Tweed in-river and coastal netting reductions to well over £2 million.

And what makes life even trickier for the blamers, is that it is the biggest run, the run that never was netted anyway, the autumn fish, mainly coming in post 15th September, that have so reduced over the last 3 years.

At the same time, although nothing dramatic, if anything the numbers of spring and summer salmon have increased over the same period.

How can this be? The weakest stocks have consolidated, even improved, while by far the strongest stock has declined.

Logically, it cannot be predation, either human or natural, because predators are indiscriminate. It cannot be a sudden lack of juveniles in the river, for we know from electrofishing results that the autumn spawning areas have, until now, been more populated than the spring areas.

Blaming (perceived) reduced smolt numbers going out to sea also does not work, for why is it the autumn smolt numbers which have reduced whilst the others, from the weaker spring and summer stocks, have not?

For every time you come up with a reason for the decline in autumn numbers, you have to explain why it has only affected the autumn, and not the spring and summer.

This brings us right back to the cycle, the undoubted fact (ah, at last a “fact” amongst all this conjecture and theorising) that salmon runs vary over time.

Nothing could be clearer than the Lees Fishing Book for 1960.

With never more than 2 rods fishing that spring (we now have 4), the entry for the 29th March says “By 4pm today we had our 300th fish for the season so far”. For the last 36 years, our average to the end of March is less than 30.

We know for sure that Tweed salmon runs go in cycles; autumn salmon and grilse have been in the ascendant for 50 years now; we know it last changed from autumn to spring 50 years before that, around 1910-1925.

Before anyone starts blaming anyone for anything, especially when the blamers have no idea what else they would have done which would have produced a different result…..maybe we should all just wait a while, uncomfortable though that might be, until we can see for sure what is going on?

And for those hatchery dinosaurs, those who think hatcheries are the solution to all problems, let me give you some figures from the Environment Agency for the counter on the main stem of the Tyne at Riding Mill. The figures include sea trout and salmon, but as for all east coast rivers this year, the sea trout runs have been weak in 2016.

June 2016 7,113

July 2016 9,919

August 2016 5,463

September 2016 3,624

These June and July figures are, by far, in aggregate, the biggest figures going back 20 years to 1996, when the counter began operations. The last 2 Julys (2015 and 2016) have been the biggest July totals, by a street, for 20 years as well.

The September figure of 3,624 is the 2nd lowest figure for 20 years.

You can prove anything with figures, but improving early running numbers and declining late summer and autumn numbers…..

…..sounds familiar?

And the Tyne, of course, has had a hatchery at Keilder since 1979.

As I said last week, something big is happening……

…. to everyone, not just to the Tweed.