news/editorial

24 September 2017 News/Editorial

The total Tweed catch for last week was 296 salmon and 27 sea trout, making the cumulative totals, to 23rd September 2017, 4,449 salmon and 1,515 sea trout.

The pattern of catches remains the same, with lots of beats catching a few fish, but nobody a lot. The diagnosis is also the same……… a lot of old fish in the river, a very few of which can be persuaded to take, and a smattering of fresh fish, much easier for anglers to attract, but there are not enough to allow any bonanza days.

I will not bore you with the countless theories about what is happening to our fish, except the one on which almost all are agreed, which is that for some reason there are very few grilse. This comparative lack of grilse is mirrored in all other UK salmon rivers (even in Iceland), so, whatever the cause, it is fair to assume that it is oceanic, not riverine.

What is odd about what has happened here on the Tweed is that our salmon (as opposed to grilse) numbers in the spring and summer have not been affected over the last 4 years; taken together they have been as good, if not slightly better, than pre 2014.

In sharp contrast, our autumn salmon (again as opposed to grilse) numbers have collapsed, along with the grilse.

This is a mystery, and I have yet to hear any remotely convincing theory for it. You might buy the “every 30 or 40 year North Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation” (MDO) for the general anti-grilse oceanic environment of late, or you might prefer Dr Holst’s “massive mackerel boom around our coast” theory for the demise of our grilse.

But neither of these should have affected our autumn multi sea-winter fish (just as it has not affected their spring and summer cousins) which, by common consent, go much further away to feed, so (supposedly) unaffected by the mackerel proliferation in the immediate North Atlantic, or by the North Atlantic MDO changes.

In theory there should still be a healthy, and getting healthier, run of autumn salmon, as the grilse run declines.

But there isn’t yet.

Which is strange.

Unless of course, as some would have us believe, those goosanders, cormorants and seals are perfecting a technique for eating both juveniles and adults of the autumn variety, whilst leaving the spring and summer ones unscathed.

I have heard worse theories…...but not many.

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Meanwhile, what of prospects for next week?

To state the blindingly obvious, much will depend on the weather.

There is a wiggling, wet, slow moving frontal system which could bring rain tonight and tomorrow, and then from Wednesday onwards, the jet stream peps up to make things much more autumnal ….and unsettled.

Those fishing next week will not want a flood, but you could argue that the river needs one to flush it out…..

…...whatever the consequences for the fishing.