news/editorial

25 September 2016 News/Editorial

I received a most splendid e-mail from my correspondent last week putting the blame for the continuing lack of fish fairly and squarely at the door of predation by goosanders, cormorants, seals, dolphins…...and he might well have added a few more, such as large cannibal brown trout.

Now there is no doubt whatever that all these things kill large numbers of our (young and mature) salmon, where I struggle is in why they have had such a dramatic effect (a) just over the last 3 years, and (b) in reducing the numbers of our late running fish, whereas the spring and summer salmon numbers show no decline at all.

My correspondent says there are more avian predators than there used to be, based on his own and others seeing large flocks, and no doubt a lot more less numerous (ie not flocks) observations. The trouble with all that is, and no doubt we have all seen these flocks, there are, in fact, no more goosanders and cormorants than is normal, and this is based on 1/4ly counts, going back many years, done by the RTC (I have been one of the counters), at dawn before the birds have been disturbed.

These counts have to be done to support the RTC’s annual licence application to scare and control the numbers of these birds on the river, especially while the smolts are running, in April and May each year.

I can hear the howls of protest, but how many of those protesting can really accurately remember how many goosanders they used to see (say) 10 or 15 years ago? The facts, per the RTC counts, do not support the view that there are many more now, as compared to then.

The graph of Tweed salmon catches between 2003 and 2013 never fell below 10,000, once got over 22,000, and more commonly hovered around the 13,000-16,000 mark.

For 2014 and 2015, it has been 8,000, and this year is looking suspiciously similar.

Blaming predation is an easy hit, and of course it doesn’t help, but if there were as many avian predators and seals and dolphins (nobody has ever told me there are more seals and dolphins now than 10 or 15 years ago) killing our salmon in those years of plenty, then there has to be something else, something new, causing the decline now, but what is it?

As an aside, head boatman Malcolm found a cutting in the local press from 100 years ago about the numbers of dolphins in Berwick harbour, playing around both amongst themselves and with the salmon.

There is, it seems, little, or nothing, new under the sun.

And then there is the run of salmon which is being impacted. I can detect nothing in the catch figures which shows any decline in the spring and summer catches. If anything, up to the end of July, they seem to be getting slightly better.

No, the decline comes from August onwards, very marked in all months after that, some down 50% or more.

It simply is not logical that predation can hit one section of the run so hard, but not impact on the others at all. Predation is indiscriminate and cannot be that selective.

And it seems to be both late running grilse and salmon that are affected, if analysis of what has been caught here over the last 3 years provides any clue. There has been a paucity of both, and time alone will tell what October and November 2016 will bring, who knows?

But the omens are not good.

So there we have it. I dislike the numbers of goosanders and cormorants as much as the next man, and believe the Government agencies could give us a licence to reduce numbers further, thereby saving thousands of parr and smolts, and without endangering in any way the population of these birds. I am not even discussing controlling numbers of seals and dolphins, because anyone who thinks that will ever happen is either living in cloud cuckoo or lala land, or both.

But are they the reason for the decline in numbers of our late running fish?

No, something else is afoot.

My guess is that we are in the process of change from the grilse dominated runs of recent decades, the 1990s and 2000s, to something different.

Change is often both painful and unpredictable.

This is proving to be both.

oo--oo

Since we are talking of predators….

...my elder brother and sister-in-law kindly asked me to join a trip to the Farne Islands off the Northumbrian coast last June, to see the amazing nesting puffins, guillemots, terns etc.

You take a boat from Seahouses and, for the first part after arrival, once you get to the Outer Farne, you bob about just offshore looking at the birds, and the seals, the grey and common varieties.

I was part of their very jolly party of friends, and of course there were other trippers on the boat too.

As they, to a man/woman, oohed and aahed, cameras clicking, at the overfed and monstrously fat seals lolling, and slithering around, on the rocks, our party mentally growled, and the skipper, as part of his running commentary on what we were all seeing, said:

“The only thing that predates on these wonderful seals are Orcas, killer whales, and there hasn’t been a killer whale here on the Farnes for many decades now”.

You could see everyone, bar our party, thinking “poor little seals, how could those horrid killer whales eat them for lunch, what horrible animals they are, they must be kept away at all costs.”

By contrast, all lovers of our Tweed salmon, you could see our party collectively thinking:

“Does anyone know a man who can find us a few killer whales, those highly intelligent Orcas, let them out of those awful Marine Parks where they cavort and splash about to amuse the adoring public, and transport them here, to the Farne Islands, asap to have some real fun, what they should be doing, catching and eating these fat sealy things. Lunch guaranteed every day for months.”

Ah…….. the difference between those towny trippers and our party was never more stark than on that boat, off the Outer Farne, that June afternoon.